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Medicare Advantage Underwriting: CMS Star Ratings, RAF Scoring, and 85% MLR Floors

Regulatory economics of Medicare Advantage risk adjustment factor (RAF) coding, 85% medical loss ratio minimums, and CMS quality bonus benchmarks.

Author: Dr. Katherine Price, Healthcare Economics
Published: 2026-10-22
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Empirical Analysis & Findings

## Actuarial Dynamics of Medicare Advantage Reimbursement

Medicare Advantage (Part C) contracts operate as private risk-bearing plans funded by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Plan profitability is determined by risk-adjustment precision and clinical quality ratings.

### The RAF Score Multiplier

CMS utilizes the Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC) model to calculate each enrollee's Risk Adjustment Factor (RAF). A baseline 70-year-old with no chronic conditions carries a RAF near 1.0, while an enrollee with managed congestive heart failure and diabetes may reach 2.4, scaling monthly capitation payments commensurately.

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UnitedHealth Group Humana CVS Health CMS Kaiser Permanente

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the penalty if a Medicare Advantage insurer falls below 85% MLR?

Under CMS rules, plans failing to meet 85% MLR must remit rebates to the federal government. Persistent failure over 3 consecutive years bars enrollment of new members.

How do CMS Star Ratings impact annual plan revenue?

Plans achieving 4.0 Stars or higher earn a 5% Quality Bonus Payment (QBP) added to their county benchmark payment, directly subsidizing extra member benefits.

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