PlayStation’s disc phase-out could kill a $7.2B used game market, analysts warn

PlayStation's disc phase-out could kill a $7.2B used game market, analysts warn

PlayStation is quietly moving toward a disc-free future, and analysts are sounding alarms that the shift could collapse the $7.2 billion used game market. If you've been trading in physical copies at GameStop or picking up pre-owned titles for half price, that era has an expiration date — and it's closer than you think.

The warning comes from multiple industry analysts who track the secondary game market. According to their estimates, the global trade-in and resale market for console games is worth roughly $7.2 billion annually. That's not pocket change — it's roughly the same size as the entire PC gaming peripheral market. And it's entirely dependent on discs being available to buy, sell, and trade.

Sony has been steadily reducing disc drive support across its hardware lineup. The PS5 Digital Edition launched without a disc drive in 2020. In 2023, Sony released a detachable disc drive for the PS5 Slim, signaling that the drive is now an optional add-on rather than a core component. More recently, the company has been producing fewer physical copies of first-party titles, with some games like Alan Wake 2 skipping physical releases entirely on PlayStation.

Here's the thing: the used game market doesn't exist without discs. Digital storefronts like the PlayStation Store don't allow resale. Once you buy a digital game, it's tied to your account permanently. No trading with friends. No selling it back when you're done. No buying a cheap used copy of Spider-Man 2 six months after launch.

Why Sony is pushing digital-only

The financial incentive for Sony is obvious. Every used game sold at GameStop or on eBay is a sale Sony didn't make. When you buy a digital copy from the PlayStation Store, Sony keeps roughly 70-85% of the revenue depending on the publisher split. When you buy a used disc at retail, Sony sees exactly zero dollars. Eliminating discs means every single game purchase flows through Sony's digital storefront.

But the timing matters here. Sony's push toward digital-only comes at a moment when physical retail is already struggling. GameStop has closed hundreds of stores over the past five years. Best Buy has reduced its video game floor space. Even Walmart has shifted more of its game inventory online. The infrastructure that supports used game sales is shrinking naturally — Sony's disc phase-out would be the final nail.

"Brick and mortar game retail is doomed," one analyst told us bluntly. "The used game market is the only thing keeping physical stores alive for games. Without trade-ins and pre-owned sales, there's no reason for those stores to exist."

Who loses when discs disappear

The obvious losers are brick-and-mortar retailers like GameStop, where used game sales account for a massive chunk of profit margins. New game sales have razor-thin margins — sometimes as low as 5-10%. Used games? Margins can hit 40-50%. Kill the used market, and you kill the business model that keeps those stores open.

But the bigger loser might be budget-conscious gamers. The used game market is how a lot of people play. You buy God of War Ragnarök for $70 at launch, beat it in three weeks, trade it in for $35, and put that credit toward the next game. Without that cycle, gaming becomes significantly more expensive for anyone who can't drop $70 on every new release.

There's also the preservation angle. Digital storefronts shut down. Servers go offline. Licenses get revoked. A disc you own can still be played decades later as long as the hardware works. A digital library is effectively a long-term rental that can be revoked at any time. Activision delisted dozens of older Call of Duty games from digital storefronts, making them unplayable for anyone who didn't already own them. Physical copies of those same games still work fine.

The counterpoint: digital is already winning

Let's be honest — the shift is already happening. Sony reported that in 2023, roughly 70% of PlayStation game sales were digital downloads. That number has been climbing every year since the PS4 generation. Most players have already accepted digital as the primary way they buy games. The convenience of not swapping discs, pre-loading at midnight, and never worrying about scratched discs is real.

The used game market is $7.2 billion today, but that number has been shrinking year over year as digital adoption increases. The question isn't whether the used market will die — it's whether Sony accelerates that death or lets it happen naturally over the next console generation.

What comes next for physical game buyers

If you're still buying discs, here's what to expect. The PS6 generation will almost certainly launch with a digital-only model as the default, with a disc drive available as a separate purchase. Some analysts predict Sony will stop producing physical copies of first-party games entirely within the next five years, following the model Microsoft has already started with Game Pass and day-one digital releases.

Third-party publishers will likely follow. If Sony stops pressing discs, there's less incentive for Activision, EA, or Ubisoft to keep paying for physical manufacturing and distribution. The economics of physical game production only work at scale — once the volume drops below a certain threshold, the per-unit cost becomes prohibitive.

For now, the used game market survives. But the clock is ticking. If you've been holding onto physical copies of games thinking they'll hold value, you might want to cash out sooner rather than later. Once the discs stop being produced, the used market becomes a finite resource — and prices for in-demand titles will spike before they collapse entirely.